It is not possible to definitively state which is more likely, WW3 or a second U.S. civil war, as both

are extremely unlikely scenarios with many unpredictable factors. There is no consensus among

experts, and credible analysis from sources like the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)

indicates that the risk of an actual U.S. civil war is negligible. However, some experts on global risk note

that current geopolitical tensions are high, and both scenarios are subjects of concern and analysis.

As of late September 2025, there is no global conflict officially designated as World War III

. However, global tensions are high due to several regional conflicts and heightened geopolitical rivalries, prompting ongoing discussion among experts and commentators about the risk of a wider conflict.

Major ongoing conflicts and tensions in 2025

• Russia-Ukraine war: Now in its third year, this war continues to draw significant attention and resources, with both Russia and NATO nations concerned about further escalation. Reports in September 2025 indicated that Russia issued warnings claiming Europe was closer than ever to the outbreak of World War III.

• Israel-Gaza/Hezbollah war: The conflict that began in October 2023 is expected to continue through at least the first quarter of 2025. Tensions have expanded with Iran and its proxies, including exchanges of long-range strikes.

• China-Taiwan tensions: The prospect of China attempting to conquer Taiwan is considered one of the highest-consequence conflicts for the coming years. In early 2025, Taiwan suspected China was behind the severing of an international undersea telecom cable, raising tensions.

• India-Pakistan conflict: In May 2025, a brief military conflict broke out between the two nuclear-armed nations, with India launching missile strikes into Pakistan.

• Middle East crisis: Beyond the conflicts in Israel and Iran, escalating tensions continue in Syria, Yemen, and Iraq.

• Sahel region instability: The Sahel continues to suffer from jihadist violence, fueling instability across West Africa.

• Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC): Fighting has continued to escalate in the Eastern DRC in 2025.

• Rising US-China rivalry: Great power competition continues to define the global security environment, alongside tensions between NATO and Russia.

• Domestic political shifts: Domestic politics in various countries, including a return to isolationist policies hinted at by Donald Trump during his second term, could impact global conflict dynamics.

Factors contributing to global instability

Multiple factors are identified by experts as heightening the risk of global conflicts:

• Great Power Competition: Intense rivalry between major powers like the U.S. and China, along with ongoing friction between NATO and Russia, contributes to a fragile security environment.

• Technological Threats: The increasing use of cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and weaponized AI blurs the lines between war and peace and can potentially trigger conflicts.

• Climate Change: Resource scarcity caused by climate change, including droughts and floods, can worsen tensions, especially in regions with weak governance.

• Proliferation of Nuclear Powers: The possibility of nuclear conflict remains a major concern, particularly in volatile regions involving nuclear powers. A May 2025 YouGov poll revealed that a majority of Europeans and Americans fear a higher death toll involving nuclear weapons if a world war were to occur.

WWill We have WW# or anither Civil War? Let's Explore!

World War III or 2nd American Civil War: Which is More Likely?

Second Thought, 1.87M subscribers, Nov 2, 2018

World War III or 2nd American Civil War: Which is More Likely? – Second Thought SUBSCRIBE HERE: http://bit.ly/2nFsvTS WATCH LAST VIDEO HERE: • Playlist

How A Second American Civil War Could Start WW3

Monsieur Z, 274K subscribers, Apr 25, 2024 #civilwar #russiaukrainewar #ww3

A second American civil war has been on many people's minds, and so has the possibility for WW3. Between tensions within the United States among Democrats and Republicans, liberals and conservatives, and the left and the right, as well as the conflicts abroad, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Israel's was with Hamas, and the risk of China invading Taiwan, could the collapse of American stability be all it takes for World War 3 to break out? This is how a 2nd American Civil War could start WWIII.